沪指上演罕见8连跌 4大板块面临修复性机会(2)

　　电力 多措施解决供需矛盾

　　自5月19日以来,前期表现强劲的电力板块明显回软,整体跌幅达11.97%。其中,富龙热电狂跌37.36%,居该板块跌幅榜之首,湖北能源、凯迪电力、天富热电、岷江水电、皖能电力等地府超过20%。与此相反,三峡水利逆势大涨22.46%,成为近期市场的明星,红阳能源、上海电力分别上涨6.86%和1.77%。

　　近期,全国电力供需总体偏紧,电力紧缺较前几年有所加剧,缺电缺口、空间、时间均成蔓延之势,但仍为结构性缺电,还未出现大面积的硬缺电。为缓解“十二五”中期可能出现的大范围缺电难题,中电联建议通过加快电源建设,加大电力输送,配套体制改革等措施予以缓解。

　　近日中电联公布1-4月份全国电力工业生产简况,4月份单月用电量同比增长11.23%,1-4 月份累计用电量同比增长12.40%;分类看,三大产业及城乡居民生活单月用电分别增长2.77%、11.30%、12.91%、11.09%。

　　弱市环境下火电公司低估值和业绩改善预期提供了极佳的防御性投资价值。天相投顾认为,紧缩政策超调拖累经济下滑的风险在增加,悲观估计全年经济下行幅度加深,这将促使煤价下跌,火电企业盈利好转;乐观估计全年经济下滑幅度可控,煤价上涨预期将得到抑制,电荒期间启动电价上调或通胀缓和后上调电价都是大概率事件,火电业绩有望获得改善。总之,在紧缩政策延续致经济增速下滑趋势较为明确的背景下,火电行业今年或存在持续性的投资机会。考虑电力板块市盈率和市净率估值均处于历史的低位水平,继续向下的空间有限,在目前弱市环境下,低估值和业绩改善预期为火电行业提供了极佳防御性投资价值。

　　招商证券建议,6月份重点关注汛期来临带来水电投资机会。6月份,国内大部分河流将从枯水期进入汛期,水电站将进入发电高峰,建议重点关注拥有相关流域大型水电站的上市公司如长江电力、国投电力和国电电力等。近期,这些公司的股价均出现较大幅度的回调,风险已经充分释放,随着汛期来临,预计公司的水电资产将带动公司业绩有不错的表现。另外,鉴于这些公司均具有良好的业绩和较高的成长性,它们绝对价值明显,攻守兼备,按照、现价买入,绝对收益和相对收益都会非常明显。

　　天相投顾维持电力行业“增持”评级。建议关注当前点火价差较低,对煤价回落和电价上调业绩弹性较强的火电公司,如:赣能股份、皖能电力、豫能控股等。水电公司成长性更加突出,建议关注具有内涵式成长能力的水电公司,如:国投电力、川投能源等,以及具有水电资产注入预期的桂冠电力、黔源电力等。

　　电力行业部分个股八天涨跌幅一览

　　证券代码     证券简称    2011-5-23                   市盈率              营业收入                     净利润                    基本每股收益 2011一季(元)

　　以来涨跌幅(%)               (PE,TTM)             2011一季(万元)              2011一季(万元)                

　　000027.SZ    深圳能源    -6.97                       16.8545             297471.5021                  33755.6055                0.13

　　000539.SZ    粤电力A     -7.767                      31.421              276478.2132                  -2060.1036                0.005

　　000543.SZ    皖能电力    -18.3168                    33.0281             97301.5917                   -729.6811                 0.03

　　000600.SZ    建投能源    -13.8937                    -                   129658.5314                  -4386.4175                -0.0314

　　000601.SZ    韶能股份    -14.7569                    59.0486             49962.4245                   -77.0605                  -0.0023

　　000690.SZ    宝新能源    -6.9892                     28.9285             78703.2381                   5391.3024                 0.03

　　000720.SZ    ST能山      -11.5152                    -                   67115.4796                   -8588.0558                -0.0795

　　000767.SZ    漳泽电力    -13.1206                    -                   103849.8837                  -17623.9112               -0.13

　　000875.SZ    吉电股份    -11.1111                    241.851             105739.7749                  633.6938                  0.0063

　　000899.SZ    赣能股份    -17.1504                    -                   60065.4559                   -5747.6731                -0.0889

　　000966.SZ    长源电力    -14.486                     -                   181126.0152                  -24247.7553               -0.4

　　001896.SZ    豫能控股    -4.9803                     184.3033            108609.2978                  -4576.6238                -0.08

　　600011.SH    华能国际    -9.3443                     27.5846             3039982.681                  24736.9183                0.02

　　600021.SH    上海电力    1.2302                      31.03               465256.6303                  22644.7838                0.0649

　　600027.SH    华电国际    -6.6327                     -                   1373692.6                    -29445.6                  -0.039

　　600098.SH    广州控股    -9.6277                     23.2504             217092.9281                  13926.1258                0.0439

　　600292.SH    九龙电力    -10.7453                    445.0535            81469.2146                   591.751                   0.005

　　600452.SH    涪陵电力    -15.6581                    -                   20286.1704                   497.6227                  0.031

　　600642.SH    申能股份    -4.0097                     20.1751             629923.8679                  75054.8987                0.152

　　600674.SH    川投能源    -9.4241                     37.2224             30931.1921                   9747.9106                 0.0833

　　600726.SH    华电能源    -9.1837                     -                   233704.0888                  -19501.9372               -0.1

　　600744.SH    华银电力    -13.5185                    -                   181987.5521                  -20148.0315               -0.2746

　　600780.SH    通宝能源    -13.2886                    7276.3452           50198.3402                   -1946.5903                -0.0223

　　600795.SH    国电电力    -5.2795                     18.1214             1144464.21                   79429.4901                0.034

　　600863.SH    内蒙华电    -9.375                      30.0339             157022.3462                  16944.171                 0.037

　　600886.SH    国投电力    -10.0613                    31.5556             429591.2034                  3378.6882                 0.0037

　　601991.SH    大唐发电    -8.9286                     29.5981             1564199.9                    27084.1                   0.0071

　　000993.SZ    闽东电力    -11.2703                    33.2992             10689.3441                   878.9295                  0.0251

　　002039.SZ    黔源电力    -11.3233                    21.8023             32041.4162                   1216.0361                 0.0028

　　600101.SH    明星电力    -13.8264                    33.8157             18741.261                    1693.6309                 0.053

　　600116.SH    三峡水利    27.2727                     93.178              17810.7339                   -659.4959                 -0.02